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Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-03-15T06:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/121/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Dst min. in nT: -132
Dst min. time: 2013-03-17T21:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T09:00Z
Prediction Method: ESA
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by Nat Gopalswamy submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)

v=1000 km/s    

On Mar 15, 2013, at 9:26 PM, Nat Gopalswamy  wrote:

Dave,

Did you enter the info in the community portal? 1000 km/s implies a 
shock arrival time of 9 UT on March 17 (according to ESA model). ... Gopal

On 3/15/2013 9:02 PM, David Webb wrote:
It looks like this filament erupted on Mar. 15, ~06 UT with the M1 flare. A halo CME and predictions it will hit Earth 16-17, ie, this weekend. Maybe a good candidate for study.

Regards,
Dave
________________________________________
From: Temmer, Manuela (manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at) [manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at]
Sent: Friday, March 15, 2013 10:37 AM
To: minimax24@igam.uni-graz.at
Subject: MiniMax24 non-flare target

Filament target within ±30 degrees of the central meridian.


An elongated filament is located at N30W10, it spans about 30° in N-S and 25° in E-W direction (2013-Mar-15 09:00UT).


For flare target see:
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/mmmotd_latest/index.html

MiniMax24 Wiki:
Please contribute data and other information under Community Portal.
https://igam02ws.uni-graz.at/mediawiki/index.php?title=Main_Page


Manuela

Lead Time: 28.03 hour(s)
Difference: -3.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-03-16T01:26Z

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